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The Metropolitan Jerusalem Master Plan
The Metropolitan Jerusalem Master Plan
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The Demographic Challenge
Despite a general trend towards increased natural growth for the Jewish population and a
general trend towards decreased natural growth for the Muslim population in metropolitan
Jerusalem, the percentage of Muslims in the population is rising steadily, due to Jews leaving
the metropolis. Stopping this trend requires a national and multipronged approached.
Long-term urban planning must
deal with demographic change as
an integral part thereof. Forecasts
regarding population growth rates
for the metropolis are an essential
factor for the entire planning
process. When planning for the
future of Jerusalem, national
considerations come into play,
which stem from the city’s role as
the capital of Israel, as well as the
desire to have a solid and distinct
Jewish majority in Jerusalem.
Demographic factors are
dynamic and influenced by social
change, the populations’ level of
education – in particular that of the
women, the level of urbanization,
and changes in the economy,
politics, and in the security
situation. Thus, the degree of
precision of a population growth
forecast declines when the length
of the forecast increases.
However, the need for long-term
planning for the city still requires
a cautious, educated forecast,
based on current data and past
demographic trends.
This chapter is intended to provide
a demographic basis for the Jerusalem
5800 Project’s Planning Committee.
For these purposes, we adopt the
definitions of Israeli Central Bureau
of Statistics. For the convenience
of comparison, we included in the
use of the term “Jew” or “Jewish”
people belonging to Jewish faith,
non-Arab Christians, and those with
no religious affiliation. The use of the
term “Arab” relates to Arab Muslims
and Arab Christians, whether living
in Israel as citizens or residents, or as
residents of the areas under control
of the Palestinian Authority.
Analysis of demographic trends
among Jews and Muslims in the
region designated as metropolitan
Jerusalem shows that if a policy is
not implemented, designed to stop
emigration of Jews to outside the
metropolitan region - a trend which
has been going on for many years –
the population growth among Arabs,
relative to that of Jews, will increase.
It is important to emphasize that the
population growth amongst Muslims
in metropolitan Jerusalem is not due
to the product of natural growth.
Rather it is happening despite a
long-term trend in natural population
growth, wherein each year the birth
rate among Muslims has decreased,
while among Jews it has risen.
Despite this trend of declining birth
rates among Muslims in metropolitan
Jerusalem – a trend existing among
the general Muslim population
in Israel and worldwide – the
percentages of Muslims in the city’s
population is growing constantly. The
reason for this is the emigration of
Jews from metropolitan Jerusalem for
various reasons.
As the basis for the forecasted
size of the population of Jerusalem
for the year 2050, we will use
the situation as of 2012. We will
examine three possible scenarios
regarding the metropolitan
Jerusalem boundaries. In each
scenario the metropolitan
boundaries have been changed, and
accordingly, the size and makeup of
the population:
1. Including Jewish towns in close
proximity to metropolitan
Jerusalem.
2. Additional extending of the
metropolis by adding the
Bethlehem district, as defined by
the Palestinian Authority.
3. Additional extending of the
metropolis by adding the
Ramallah district, as defined by
the Palestinian Authority.
2012
1.500.000
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
2.500.000
3.500.000
500.000
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
2020
1,182,939
1,155,621
2012
977,774
921,662
2030
1,639,746
1,395,555
2040
2,312,972
1,646,612
2050
3,323,125
1,906,361
2050
תסריטי תחזית לאוכלוסיית ירושלים רבתי עד שנת
לפי קבוצות האוכלוסייה
יהודים
2.4
לוח
2013
מקורות: לגבי האוכלוסייה היהודית: הלמ“ס שנתון סטטיסטי לישראל
2050
לגבי האוכלוסייה הערבית במחוזות רמאללה ובית לחם: הלספ“מ ותחזית של הלמ“ס ארה“ב לריבוי הטבעי עד שנת
ערבים לפי
ארה“ב
באלפי נפש
Jerusalem Rebuilt
Population Growth Projections Greater Jerusalem
through 2050 by Group
Sources: Jewish population numbers are based on the “2013 Annual Report” from The Central Bureau of Statistics (Israel) chart 2.4.
Arab population data for the Ramallah and Bethlehem districts are based on those of The Palestinian Central Bureau of
Statistics and the rojections of the United States Census Bureau for natural population growth through 2050.
Jews
Arabs according to USCB
2012
1.500.000
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
2.500.000
3.500.000
500.000
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
2020
1,182,939
1,155,621
2012
977,774
921,662
2030
1,639,746
1,395,555
2040
2,312,972
1,646,612
2050
3,323,125
1,90 ,361
2050
תסריטי תחזית לאוכלוסיית ירושלים רבתי עד שנת
לפי קבוצות האוכלוסייה
יהודים
2.4
לוח
2013
מקורות: לגבי האוכלוסייה היהודית: הלמ“ס שנתון סטטיסטי לישראל
2050
לגבי האוכלוסייה הערבית במחוזות רמאללה ובית לחם: הלספ“מ ותחזית של הלמ“ס ארה“ב לריבוי הטבעי עד שנת
ערבים לפי
ארה“ב
באלפי נפש
Scenario
Jews
Arabs
Total population of
metropolitan Jerusalem
1
921,662 people |
66.6%
461,700 people |
33.4%
1,383,362
2
921,662 people |
58.3%
660,046 people |
41.7%
1,581,708
3
921,662 people |
48.6%
974,720 people |
51.4%
1,896,382
Jerusalem Rebuilt